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If last week was any indication, this postseason is primed to be one of the most memorable in recent years. With three of the four Wild Card games coming down to a winning margin of a field goal or less, the question now becomes: How will the Wild Card winners fare now that they all have to hit the road? Now that each conference’s top two seeds (Denver and New England in the AFC, Seattle and Carolina in the NFC) get to play, this week will go a long way in determining which teams have what it takes to hoist the Lombardi trophy this year. The stage is set, and the anticipation is reaching fever pitch, so let’s look at each of the matchups for “Round Two”.
AFC
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (January 11: 8:15 PM ET, 5:15 PM PT)
Tom Brady. The name alone is enough to engender a curious mix of respect, righteous fury, and bed-wetting terror. Brady’s story is well-documented: the sixth-round draft pick in 2000, he served as Drew Bledsoe’s backup until a massive hit to the latter by Jets linebacker Mo Lewis in the fourth quarter of the Patriots’ home opener forced Brady into the game. The rest, of course, is not merely history, but a Hall of Fame-worthy legacy that continues to this day. Brady is often mentioned first and foremost alongside Peyton Manning among the game’s best quarterbacks of all time, and rightfully so. What, then, to make of the Colts, who now have the unfortunate task of traveling to Foxboro for a primetime playoff matchup in the cold Massachusetts winter against this living legend? The answer: not much. Andrew Luck may very well be the next great young quarterback, but he simply isn’t ready to handle this kind of pressure. The defense is similarly outmatched, and that’s not a good thing when you’re going up against an offense like the Pats’ that can put up 30+ points a game without breaking a sweat. It pains me to say this, but the Patriots win big.
Patriots 38, Colts 10
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (January 12: 4:40 PM ET, 1:40 PM PT)
Speaking of Peyton Manning, the Broncos are primed to face their AFC West rivals San Diego at home in a re-rematch of the teams’ Week 15 bout. In that game, the Chargers upset the heavily-favored Denver squad, 27-20. As previously stated, Manning is unquestionably one of the best quarterbacks of all time; his biggest downfall, however, has been his historic difficulty with winning in the playoffs: his postseason record currently sits at a decidedly un-legendary 9-11 (6-11 if you don’t count the Colts’ 2006 Super Bowl run). For whatever reason, no matter how successful Manning has been in the regular season, he seems to constantly fall short come January. This time around, however, that shouldn’t be an issue. The Broncos’ receiving corps–with Demariyus Thomas, Wes Welker, and Eric Decker headlining–is deeper and more talented than it’s even been before. Denver’s stingy run defense–eighth-best in the league this year–is fired up and ready to make Danny Woodhead wish he’s stayed in New England. The only Achilles heel for the Broncos is the completely lifeless pass defense, which one can imagine Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen will be only too happy to exploit. I can see a shootout happening here, but by the end of the night it’ll be Broncos-Patriots for the AFC Champonship.
Broncos 42, Chargers 31
NFC
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (January 11: 4:35 PM ET, 1:35 PM PT)
CenturyLink Field has become infamous for its nearly impenetrable wall of volume and general hostility toward visiting teams. That hostility was on perfect display in Week 13, when the visiting New Orleans Saints were blown out by the Seahawks, 34-7. The Seahawks ended up losing exactly one game at home this season (a fluke to the Arizona Cardinals who, despite their best efforts, ended up as one of the few 11-5 teams in NFL history to miss the playoffs) en route to the NFC West title. Meanwhile, the Saints were neck-and-neck with Carolina for much of the year before a late-year misstep relegated them to the sixth seed. Now the two teams meet again, with considerably more at stake this time around. The Twelfth Man has proven nigh unstoppable so far, although a lot of the credit goes to Seattle’s top-ranked defense. As far as I’m concerned, the only thing the Saints have going for them here is the Drew-Brees-Jimmy Graham connection, but even that is suspect in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle should look to evoke memories of the “BeastQuake” as they advance to the NFC Championship for the first time in nearly ten years.
Seahawks 27, Saints 7
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (January 12: 1:05 PM ET, 10:05 AM PT)
The Carolina Panthers are probably the NFL’s biggest surprise this season. After starting 1-3, Ron Rivera’s squad rallied to win eleven of their final twelve games, the only blemish being a 31-13 loss to the Saints in Week 14, en route to their first NFC South title since 2008. One of those wins was against the 49ers in Week 10, a 10-9 affair in Candlestick Park. This time, the game will be played in Bank of America Stadium, but the Niners are healthier–and possibly more capable–than last time. Michael Crabtree, who missed the first matchup with an Achilles injury, is back and in top form. Colin Kaepernick, who had the worst statistical game of his career in the first meeting, has been on a tear recently. San Fran’s defense has been as strong as ever, and Frank Gore is one of the top backs in the game. So will the 49ers be able to overcome this time around? I say no. Cam Newton has matured beyond belief in his third season, and he’s beginning to develop into the leader he was meant to be when he was drafted. This Panthers front seven, spearheaded by linebacker Luke Kuechly, is possibly the scariest in the league, and it shows: Carolina’s defense was the second-stingiest in the NFL this year, behind only–guess who?–the Seahawks. This one will be another defensive struggle, akin to the first game, and the result should be fairly similar.
Panthers 13, 49ers 10
And finally, let’s take a quick look at what the championship games will be like if everything goes according to plan.
AFC Championship: New England at Denver
NFC Championship: Carolina at Seattle
That’s it for now. Remember to check in next time to see how it all went down. Leave a comment if you like my picks, or if you just think I’m full of it.
Great blog.