The NHL is going to look very different in 2021.
The usual divisional alignment (Atlantic, Metropolitan, Central, Pacific) has been modified due to the COVID-19 pandemic that has shaken the sports world since last March. Four divisions still exist, but the divisions are now the Central, East, West and North divisions. The most notable change is that all of the Canadian teams have been segregated into their own division (North) to limit international travel. Meanwhile, the rest of the divisions have undergone a simple realignment.
The Predators remain in the same division on paper, but the teams surrounding them are very different. Remaining in the Central are the Chicago Blackhawks, the Dallas Stars…and that’t it. The Columbus Blue Jackets, Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning and Detroit Red Wings will join the division this year.
So, is this situation going to make the Predators’ path to the playoffs any easier? Unfortunately, no, and I believe the Predators will be a bubble team that has a 50/50 shot at making the postseason due to the difficulty of the teams surrounding them.
The Blackhawks are entering a rebuild, the Red Wings are still rebuilding and will remain that way this year, the Panthers are likely still going to be mediocre and the Stars have lost a lot of steam since their loss in the 2020 Stanley Cup Finals. However, the reigning champions in Tampa Bay now share a division with the Preds, but so do the up-and-coming Blue Jackets and a very competitive Hurricanes team.
So with that being said, what have the Preds done since getting kicked out of the 2020 play-in round? Have they been able to bring in some new pieces to make them more competitive in a lop-sided Central Division?
Nashville, ever since 2017, have been in “win now” mode and have accordingly made transactions in an attempt to finally push over the hump. To me, it seems like management is still looking for the final pieces to complete a championship roster and that is reflected in what the Preds have done this offseason. This has prevented high draft picks and a commitment to the organization’s young players.
The team has brought in some new faces to the organization, including defenseman Mark Borowiecki, forwards Nick Cousins, Brad Richardson, Luke Kunin and Erik Haula. The team also brought back forward Mickael Granlund.
The Preds have since lost forwards Nick Bonino (traded), Kyle Turris (bought out), Austin Watson (traded) and Craig Smith (didn’t re-sign). Defensively, the Preds also lost Dan Hamhuis (retired).
The losses of Bonino and Smith I think are going to be the hardest-hitting. Bonino is a proven playoff warrior and Smith was always an underrated player, but even I’ll admit that they weren’t producing enough to warrant being on the team with their salaries. Turris, who was acquired through trade about a year or two ago, never really fit into the Preds’ system and couldn’t produce nearly enough to what he was being paid. Watson was a low-end forward that routinely was sent to the minors, so he won’t be missed that much on the ice.
Kunin (31 points in 63 games) is a decent second- or third-line forward that should provide some offensive assistance to a team that struggles with scoring. Similarly, Cousins is an okay two-way forward that should provide some help in the defensive zone. Borowiecki is essentially a replacement for Hamhuis, and Richardson is a veteran presence that could prove beneficial to the team in the long run.
While the Preds didn’t make any big splashes in free agency, they picked up a couple of good depth pieces. I think these moves will help make the Preds harder to play against, especially with Cousins and Richardson being present. Nothing about these trades screams that the team will address its biggest issue (which I’ll get into to), but it at least appears that Nashville won’t be as soft an opponent as they were in 2020.
So what about the returning roster?
The first line will likely be Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson on the wings with Ryan Johansen at center. Both Forsberg and Arvidsson have a natural scoring touch, which pairs well with Johansen’s ability to facilitate scoring opportunities. This line wasn’t great last year, but hopefully with a new head coach they’ll perform better. This line should be the team’s premier, goal-scoring line, but these three have been rather inconsistent.
On the second line, I can see elite prospect Eeli Tolvanen and Kunin on the wings with Matt Duchene at center. So far, Duchene (admittedly my least favorite player), hasn’t been as advertised. He produced 42 points in 66 games last year, but many weren’t impressed with that, seeing as how he was seen as a top-tier player in the league. Tolvanen has excelled in the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL), but has yet to transition that elite scoring ability to the NHL yet.
Cousins and Richardson should slot easily into the bottom six. I can see up-and-coming prospect Yakov Trenin also making an appearance on the roster regularly.
Nashville’s usual bread and butter, the defense, still looks great on paper. Last season, the Preds secured their first-ever Norris Trophy winner in Roman Josi, who is arguably the best defenseman in the league. He’s the main star on the roster going into the 2021 campaign.
His defensive partner will likely be the reliable Ryan Ellis, who still has a strong offensive presence from the point. Mattias Ekholm and young-gun Dante Fabbro will likely manage the second pairing (Fabbro may switch between the second and third pair), with the third pairing being a complete question mark as to who will man it.
The goaltending situation is quite murky – a rarity for Nashville. Is the Pekka Rinne era in Nashville over? To the dismay of some fans, it’s not. Rinne isn’t a bad player by any means but he isn’t the same player he used to be. He won the Vezina a couple years back but he isn’t that caliber player anymore. Age has caught up and Rinne has shown serious signs of declining in ability, as evidenced by his 3.17 goals against average (GAA) and his .895 save percentage (S%) last season.
Juuse Saros has been under the wing of Rinne since 2015, and it appears he’ll be making earning more starts than his mentor this season. He was leaned on heavily in the postseason (3.22 GAA, .895 S%), but defensive errors and a lack of a decent penalty kill held him back in my opinion. The real question here is if the organization believes that he’s ready to take on the full starting role in net. If not, they better look elsewhere and soon. I don’t think Connor Ingram is ready to take up backup duties yet and Iaroslav Askarov (selected 11th overall in 2020) is still a couple years out.
With that being said, what does the team need to improve on from last year? The answer is simple – special teams and offense.
The Preds are paying a lot of money to guys like Johansen, Duchene and Forsberg to be top-notch, high-producing forwards. Duchene only scored 13 goals last season (yikes), Johansen was limited and Forsberg has always been a streaky scorer. If the Preds have any shot at making the playoffs, let alone making a deep run, they need these guys to revive their offense. Keep in mind that Josi’s 65 points outscored all of these guys last year.
The most noted and talked about issue with the team is the performance of the special teams, especially the power play. Nashville’s 17.3% on the power play ranked 12th in the Western Conference last season. The penalty kill (76.06%) ranked dead-last in the conference and third-last in the NHL.
The issue with special teams boiled down to coaching I believe, but also the players to a lesser degree. The penalty kill will no doubt improve with Richardson and Cousins, but I see more of the same with the power play, as Nashville failed to bring in any elite goal-scorers in the offseason. Really, it reflects the bigger picture of a lack of offense.
Like I’ve said before, the Preds need a natural, consistent goal-scorer that can routinely put the puck in the back of the net. They need someone like a Patrick Kane, Alexander Ovechkin or a Nikita Kucherov. The Preds, like every year, lack an elite forward and that will continue to haunt the team.
The Preds will be a borderline (“bubble”) playoff team in 2021. Their division got tougher with the Lightning, Blue Jackets and Hurricanes joining the fold. They don’t have Minnesota or St. Louis to beat up on this year, but they can still matchup well with Chicago, Florida and Detroit.
I see Nashville finishing fourth in the Central and fighting for a wild card berth from start to finish. Ultimately, however, I see the Preds missing the postseason in 2021. Really, it’s a 50/50 shot at whether or not they’ll make it in, but if they do, don’t count on them making it past the first round.
