Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan: three countries whose fates may be determined by the outcome of the 2024 election and were discussed by Political Science experts on Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024. The UT Martin College of Business and Global Affairs hosted a panel forum titled, “The Global Impact of the 2024 American Elections,” at the Paul Meek Library. Among the group of Political Science experts were associate professors Dr. Carrie Humphreys and Dr. Adnan Rasool, as well as Dr. Timothy Rich from UT Knoxville and Dr. Vasabjit Banerjee from Western Kentucky University. The panel was moderated by Anthony Lain and Ayden Carroll, two junior Political Science majors enrolled at UT Martin. There was also time allotted for the audience members to ask their questions at the end.
The discussion continued for well over an hour, covering several topics regarding foreign conflicts, supply chains, and international treaties. Of the United States’ allies, one of the most prominently discussed was Ukraine. Regarding the election’s influence on the Russo-Ukrainian
War, Dr. Humphreys specifically explained, “The [European Union] and the European countries are very invested in this election result, because it could mean kind of a continuation of the status quo, which is support for NATO, support for Ukraine, on a variety of security issues. Or it could mean that Europe now is going to be more wholly responsible for security not only within its own region, but also in these conflict areas like Ukraine.”
One of the most recent events discussed was Lebanon’s sudden involvement in the Israel-Hamas War. As for the current state of the conflict, Dr. Rasool remarked, “That conflict that is to be internal to a certain extent between a state and a non-state, is fast becoming a conflict that threatens to be a state-level conflict. Now, it is no longer the state of Israel fighting with terrorist organizations or non-state actors. It is the state of Israel potentially entering war with the state of Lebanon and more.”
Another topic of discussion was the supply chain difficulties which stem from the growing tensions between Taiwan and China. Dr. Rich of WKU, an expert on East Asian politics who has conducted field research in Taiwan, commented, “There is a concern that we are overly reliant on chips from Taiwan, or for that matter it is Taiwan and right below them South Korea. If China were to attack Taiwan and take [them] out, that essentially takes out that supply chain.” Concerning the United States’ increased chip manufacturing in accordance with the Chip Act, he went on to say, “I don’t think Taiwanese officials see the building of U.S. chip manufacturing as a threat to them. I think they see it as sort of a means to enhance capacity in the event that more chips are necessary for war.”
The last major topic discussed was the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. When asked about how Trump or Harris would impact the deal, Dr. Bannerjee of UTK asserted that “Both of them have positions that will affect these three things. Keep your eyes on immigration, which everybody kind of is talking about…narcotics…and trade.”
There will be another Political Science forum focused on domestic policy in October, ahead of the United States presidential election on Nov. 4, 2024.
