Photo Credit: Craig Strobeck- USA TODAY sports
Now that the 2023-2024 season has concluded, we move onto one of the most anticipated parts of the NFL offseason. The NFL draft will be from April 25-27 and has seven rounds and 259 picks, in which teams take their pick of the junior and senior prospects of the previous collegiate season.
This is where most teams look to bring in new talent to their organization. Within the next few months, teams will be looking back at players games, working out players physically and interviewing players personally to figure out who they want to join their team when training camp comes around. Throughout this time period, players’ values in teams’ eyes will move up or down depending on physical performance, how well they do in interviews and how healthy they are.
In no particular order I’d like to put a spotlight on the players trending up, the players trending down and why they’re on this trajectory at this point in the process. I will be using PFF’s (Pro Football Focus) trends database, which considers rankings from many different analysts who scout and rank players year in and year out to measure just how much these players’ value has changed.
Risers
- Byron Murphy II, Defensive Tackle, Texas
Trend- As listed by the University of Texas, coming in at 6’1, 308 pounds, the Longhorn defensive tackle has roared up draft boards with NFL.com draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah, having Murphy going as high as 11th to the Minnesota Vikings in his mock draft 1.0. Murphy’s stock as a draft prospect has skyrocketed from as low as 84th since the middle of October last year. As football progresses and through the emergence of the likes of Rams’ defensive tackle, Aaron Donald, and, more recently, the success of Buccaneers’ defensive tackle, Calijah Kancey, a door has been opened for the success of shorter, stockier, interior defensive linemen such as Murphy.
Why- A big reason Murphy has flown up draft boards is his ability in the run game and rushing the quarterback. Recording 5.0 sacks, 8.5 TFLs (tackles for loss) and 29 total tackles, Murphy did not stuff the stat sheet this past season at Texas. What he did do, however, is put his elite athleticism and violent hands on tape for many scouts to see. Look for Murphy to continue his upward trajectory as we make the long journey to the Draft in April.
- Jackson Powers-Johnson, Center, Oregon
Trend- After coming in at 6’3, 334 pounds at the Reese’s Senior Bowl, the Oregon interior offensive line product caught the eyes of many scouts in Mobile, Alabama, where the senior bowl is held every year. Powers-Johnson’s stock as a prospect has been trending up from 60th since the middle of December. Now, in late February, Powers-Johnson is projected to be 20th according to PFF’s trends database.
Why- After three years as a Oregon Ducks lineman, Powers-Johnson has allowed zero sacks and one pressure. He is the total package for a center prospect coming into the NFL. On the field he dominates the run and pass game with power and speed in the open field. He brings an energy to the field that few possess, which sets him apart from other prospects at his same position. During the aforementioned senior bowl, he displayed an ability to dominate even against the best of their respective positions. Another thing that helps Powers-Johnson’s case is his background in wrestling. Some of the best offensive linemen in the league have deep backgrounds in wrestling and Jackson Powers-Johnson is no exception. With a wrestling record of 51-1 out of Corner Canyon High School in Draper, Utah and a large frame for an NFL center, Jackson Powers-Johnson is primed to be the next great NFL center.
- Quinyon Mitchell, Cornerback, Toledo
Trend- Quinyon Mitchell is another guy who drastically increased his stock during the senior bowl. Coming in at 6’ and 196 pounds, Mitchell saw his stock soar after a dominate showing in Mobile. Near the end of the season, around the middle of November, Mitchell was being put as low as 100th in many people’s rankings, but after his elite performance in the senior bowl, Mitchell has found himself being ranked as high as 18th according to PFF’s trends database.
Why- Before the senior bowl, Mitchell was seen as a guy with elite ability in zone coverage (guarding an area of the field instead of a singular person) and high upside athletically. Mitchell was still highly regarded after his junior season with stats such as six career interceptions and only allowing 27 catches for 270 yards. It was the aforementioned senior bowl which really gave Mitchell a big boost in terms of his stock. In Mobile, Mitchell lived in receivers’ hip pockets and gave them fits at the line of scrimmage, which was something many scouts questioned if he could do. Watch for Mitchell to be one of the first corners named when the draft rolls around in April.
- Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri
Trend- This list would not be complete without Darius Robinson. Standing at 6’5, 286 pounds, out of Missouri, Robinson is the biggest benefactor of the senior bowl. In mid-December, before the senior bowl, Robinson’s draft ranking was put as low as 200th, but, after the senior bowl, where he put forward a strong showing against some top offensive line prospects in the draft, Robinson is projected to go as high as 43rd.
Why- After the 2023 season came to an end, where Robinson put up stats of 43 tackles and 8.5 sacks, Robinson had a lot to prove. Before the senior bowl, Robinson was not seen as a top prospect for this year’s draft. However, he swiftly turned that around at the senior bowl, where he easily beat highly touted offensive lineman from around the country. The biggest hit against Robinson by many is what position he’s gonna play at in the NFL. He’s kind of in between playing defensive tackle and slimming down to be an edge rusher. No matter what, Robinson has a high variety of pass rush moves to win with and great athleticism at his size that will serve him well in the NFL.
Fallers
- Kalen King, Cornerback, Penn State
Trend- Penn State cornerback, Kalen King, standing at 5’11, 189 pounds, came into the season primed to solidify himself as a top player in this year’s draft. Throughout the most recent college football season, King was projected to go high, as high as 10th on average in early September. While King is still a very talented player, this most recent season did not do him any favors when it came to his draft placement. His significant regression this past season has led to him falling to an average of 129th on PFF’s trends database. King still has time to make up lost ground, but he’s running out of time to do so.
Why- After an elite junior season, in which we saw him put up three interceptions and 21 passes defended, King was expected to take a step to another level this year and become the top pick many expected him to be. Unfortunately, the season did not play out this way for King. This past season saw a heavy decrease in his production with zero interceptions and two passes defended. This lack of production was a cause for concern for many scouts and draft analysts, but it did not have as much impact as the senior bowl. During the senior bowl, King struggled in press man coverage and seemed to just not be the player many were expecting to come out of Penn State.
- Keon Coleman, Wide Receiver, Florida State
Trend- Keon Coleman is a 6’4, 215-pound wide receiver out of Florida State who began this season with a bang, opening his season with the best game of his collegiate career against LSU. This set the stage and began to generate the buzz for Coleman to be a top pick in this year’s draft. Unfortunately, things didn’t turn out this way. Coleman was once projected as high as 12th on average in the middle of October, but now Coleman is being projected at an average of 33rd.
Why- This past season Keon Coleman put up a stat line of 50 catches for 658 yards and 11 touchdowns. In Coleman’s big game against LSU, he put up nine catches for 122 yards and three touchdowns. After this game, Coleman only surpassed 100 yards once throughout the rest of the season. Part of this slump is because of an unknown injury he suffered during a game against Wake Forest. This lack of productivity has been a significant reason for Coleman’s fall so far.
Another reason Coleman is falling is due to his tape. A majority of Coleman’s production comes from contested catches in which he is battling one or two people for the ball while it’s in the air. This caused some people to question whether Coleman can separate from defenders enough to be successful in the NFL, where defenders are stronger, taller and faster. He’s going to have to prove he can do what he does best at the NFL level.
- Xavier Worthy, Wide Receiver, Texas
Trend- Xavier Worthy is a wide receiver out of the University of Texas that at one point was expected to be the top receiver in this draft class. Standing at 6’1, 175 pounds, Worthy is a speedster coming into the NFL. Before the most recent season, Worthy had been projected as high as 24th on average but has since fallen to 55th.
Why- Worthy exploded onto the scene his freshman year, when he put up 62 catches for 981 yards and 12 touchdowns his freshman season at Texas. This set the expectations for Worthy’s future as a prospect sky high. After this electric freshman season, Worthy went on to post a solid sophomore campaign as well. This most recent season, Worthy posted a stat line of 75 catches for 1,104 yards and five touchdowns. So why is Worthy’s value falling so much? It’s because of his size and how it will translate to the NFL where everyone is stronger, faster and overall better. Coming in at just 175 pounds, Worthy is extremely light and can be bullied by the physical corners in the NFL much easier than the corners he faced in college. However, Worthy has a chance to turn his falling value into a rising value with his blazing speed at the NFL combine. The 40-yard dash could be Worthy’s ticket to being a high value draft pick this year.
- Olu Fashanu, Offensive Tackle, Penn State
Trend- Olu Fashanu is a different case from others I’ve talked about so far. This is because he still is projected to be picked high in the first round of the draft. However, Fashanu has consistently been viewed as a top pick for the past two years, and he has just as of recent been sliding down draft boards throughout the league. In an article posted in November of 2022 by Pro Football Network’s Ian Cummings, Fashanu was picked 6th overall, and this was when Fashanu was just 19 years old. Now, in the year 2024, Fashanu’s value is down to 10th in the draft and 2nd overall. Compared to other players on this list, a fall of four spots is almost nothing, but when a player was expected to be fighting for a top five spot two years ago and now, he’s on the fringe of the top ten. It gives cause for concern over why he isn’t as valued now as he was then.
Why- Standing at 6’6 and 317 pounds, Olu Fashanu is a massive human being and one that is extremely athletic. After playing elite football 2022, where he put up a stat line of zero sacks allowed, Fashanu followed that up with another amazing year in 2023. In 2023, Fashanu allowed zero sacks once again. So why is Fashanu falling? It’s due to his ability in the run game. Even though Fashanu is improving in the run blocking, he still is not up to par with other offensive line prospects in his same draft class. If pass blocking was the only part of football, Fashanu would almost be guaranteed a spot in the top 5 this year, but that simply isn’t true. Run blocking will always be massive in the NFL, and Fashanu’s value is taking a hit because of that.
In the end, every single prospect is fighting tooth and nail to be valued more and more by teams that show interest in them. This can be the difference between a life changing contract or being undrafted. It only takes one team being interested to change a prospect’s life.
