Another week of very fun football, what more could you have asked for?
Man, this season has just been amazing whether it be how great the rookie QBs have been, players reviving their careers or the major upsets week by week. This week we get football on four different days, what a wonder. This time around we will be covering an NFC North Thanksgiving showdown and a battle of two bird teams coming off of strong primetime wins.
Quick note. I know last week I discussed how I would be adding a playoff prediction to the end, but instead, I have decided to add teamsā playoff percentage changes via https://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nflpostseasonprob.html and playoff-clinching and eliminating scenarios.
Bears head to Detroit in hopes of ending five-game losing streak
Another week of Matt Eberflus, how fun. In all seriousness, you have to feel for this Bears team in a way. They currently have a positive point differential, yet are three wins under .500. I think that speaks pretty clearly to the issue with this team. This Bears team simply got outcoached last week and has for the most part all season.
A bright spot on this Bears team? Interim offensive coordinator Thomas Brown has the offense clicking really well. Just as we spoke about last week, he has made rookie quarterback (QB) Caleb Williamsā development a lot faster. Williams went from not playing well and some fans asking for him to be benched to “this guy is legit”. Williams is playing at a veteran level of QB play right now and making throws very few QBs can make in my honest opinion.
A few examples of those plays came this past week against the Vikings (a top 10 defense overall). Williams had a laser of a throw on the right side of the field to wide receiver (WR) Keenan Allen in between two defenders. A few drives later, Williams had an insane throw on a wheel route to running back (RB) DāAndre Swift. In the final moments of the fourth quarter, Williams had another laser throw but this time to WR D.J. Moore. That play set up a field goal to send the Bears to overtime.
Now one may be wondering with all of those plays from Williams and the offense, they must have won right? No, they lost and that mostly came down to the defense and head coach (HC) Eberflus playing way too safe or conservative by playing for the big plays and allowing 10 and 20-yard catches over and over again. Things like this can not happen if they want any chance against the best team in football this week.
Plain and simple, the Lions are the best team in football. No team is playing as well as they are in almost every aspect.
Offense? No team is top five in passing or rushing efficiency other than the Lions. That is led by the monster group of weapons they have. Both WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams have been some of the better WRs in football this year (with St. Brown being the much better of the two). That great passing attack is being done even without second-year tight end (TE) Sam LaPorta, who has been dealing with injuries all year.
Oh well, if we stop the passing attack then all we have to worry about is the run game. Yeah, good luck dealing with āSonic and Knuckles.ā That nickname was deemed by the Lions coaching staff to their two superstar RBs. Jahmyr Gibbs (Sonic) adds speed and can kill you if you do not play someone high, while David Montgomery (Knuckles) adds power and physical play and you can just throw any chance out of tackling him.
Ok, well now all we need to do is keep up with their offense right? Again good luck, this Lions’ defense has been elite and that is without their best player who has been hurt since week six. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has truly turned it around as a coach and should be a head coach come next season if the defense keeps it up.
Now with all of that being said, historically speaking, lately the Lions have not won on Thanksgiving with their last win coming back in 2016 against the Vikings. The Lions play every year on Thanksgiving at home. After everything is said and done, I have Williams keeping the Bears in the game but the Lions coming out on top.
Final Score: Bears 24 – Lions 31
Eagles head over to the Ravens in battle of OPOY candidates
Is Barkley turning the narrative around about RBs? Last year it was, āOh well, you can just go out and draft an RB,ā while now it seems like going out and just paying that elite player is the move. I do not know, but we will see. I know we all would like to sit here and talk about the Eagle’s offense and how elite they have been, but how about we talk about their defense?
Vic Fangio, wow what a turnaround you have done with this team. Just last season, this defense was regarded as one of the worst in football. Well, they got tired of that narrative and brought back Fangio along with several key new players that have been vital in this defenseās success.
What does every great defense need? A good to elite off-ball linebacker (LB). Going into the season they really did not have that guy on the roster. Fangio took a chance on a guy who had yet to play a snap at LB other than trick plays, Zack Baun. Baun, for the most part in his career, has been an edge rusher and played on the outside. He also had not looked that impressive up to this point in his career with the Saints.
Fangio said that he is a LB and we are going to play him as such. Fast forward to week 13 and Baun is regarded as one of the best LBs in football this year and has majorly turned around his career.
Fangio also decided this team needed some pass coverage help. He and the Eagles decided to bring in three new starters (one being a returning player). Safety (S) C.J. Gardner-Johnson returned but many (including myself) expected him to not play well or continue his ok stint he had with the Eagles just two years back. Similar to Baun, he is now regarded as one of the best at his position based off this season alone. Fangio also brought in two rookie defensive backs who have made immediate impacts and are already looking like future superstars.
Just like the Eagles, the Ravens also signed an elite RB in the offseason, ageless wonder Derrick Henry. The Chargers went into that game posting a top-five rushing defense. Henry just casually went into their stadium and rushed for 140 yards like it was nothing. It was not just him adding to the rushing game though, QB Lamar Jackson also found some success in the rushing game off of a rushing TD.
Speaking of Jackson, he is putting together an insane run at QB and MVP contention. He is now up to a total of 30 TDs on the year and that is five games left to play. He had 29 total TDs last year and won MVP. It is clear who is going to win MVP this year.
Similar to the Eagles, the Ravens defense has done a complete 180. Not in a good way, though. Last season, the Ravens’ defense was considered one of if not the best defenses in football and they were really playing as such. Now they look like one of the worst with only a few bright spots overall. Why has the Ravens’ defense regressed?
I and many others believe it has something to do with former DC and now Seahawks HC Mike McDonald leaving. McDonald has had the Seahawks’ defense looking strong. This past game they allowed zero touchdowns, 49 rushing yards, had a pick-six and five sacks against the Cardinals. Just an insane game from them all around.Ā
It is weird though because when you look at the Ravens roster on paper and even from going individual stat by individual stat they do not look bad at all. Just seems like they are not messing as a whole together or just getting āunlucky.ā
After a fun game of back-and-forth offensive play, I have the Eagles’ defense standing strong and making Jackson have his worst game of the season.
Final Score: Eagles 32 – Ravens 23
Remaining Games and Predictions:
Giants at Cowboys (Thanksgiving): The Giants come out and throw two TDs in a low-scoring win. Final Score: Giants 17 – Cowboys 13
TNF Dolphins at Packers: The Packers take advantage of the Dolphins not being used to the cold. Final Score: Dolphins 20 – Packers 38
Raiders at Chiefs (Black Friday): The Raiders do it again and pull off a massive upset on a holiday for the second straight year against the Chiefs. Final Score: Raiders 22 – Chiefs 19
Texans at Jaguars: The Texans bounce back with a blowout win and eliminate the Jaguars from playoff contention. Final Score: Texans 41 – Jaguars 17
Colts at Patriots: The Patriots show out for the home crowd with a huge win. Final Score: Colts 17 – Patriots 30
Chargers at Falcons: The Falcons feel well after the bye and win big at home. Final Score: Chargers 20 – Falcons 30
Seahawks at Jets: The Seahawks make Rodgers really question if he should retire or not. Final Score: Seahawks 25 – Jets 17
Titans at Commanders: The Titans pull off back-to-back upsets against seven-win teams. Final Score: Titans 28 – Commanders 20
Steelers at Bengals: The Bengals hang on to keep playoff chances alive. Final Score: Steelers 18 – Bengals 28
Cardinals at Vikings: Vikings drop first game back at home after three-game road stretch. Final Score: Cardinals 30 – Vikings 20
Rams at Saints: The Rams almost drop one to the Saints in a much-needed win. Final Score: Rams 20 – Saints 17
Buccaneers at Panthers: The Buccaneers move back to .500 after a must win. Final Score: Buccaneers 38 – Panthers 18
SNF 49ers at Bills: The Bills blow out the 49ers in a game that makes 49ers fans start questioning the coaching. Final Score: 49ers 20 – Bills 40
MNF Browns at Broncos: The Browns play the Broncos close but barely drop the game in a missed field goal. Final Score: Browns 20 – Broncos 21
Standings:
AFC East:
Bills 9-2 3-0 | Dolphins 5-6 2-2 | Jets 3-8 1-2 | Patriots 3-9 1-3
AFC West:
Chiefs 10-1 3-0 | Chargers 7-4 2-1 | Broncos 7-5 2-2 | Raiders 2-9 0-4
AFC North:
Steelers 8-3 1-1 | Ravens 8-4 1-2 | Bengals 4-7 1-2 | Browns 3-8 2-1
AFC South:
Texans 7-5 3-1 | Colts 5-7 1-3 | Titans 3-8 1-1 | Jaguars 2-9 1-1
NFC East:
Eagles 9-2 3-0 | Commanders 7-5 2-2 | Cowboys 4-7 2-1 | Giants 2-9 0-4
NFC West:
Seahawks 6-5 2-2 | Cardinals 6-5 2-1 | Rams 5-6 2-1 | 49ers 5-6 1-3
NFC North:
Lions 10-1 2-0 | Vikings 9-2 2-1 | Packers 8-3 1-2 | Bears 4-7 0-2
NFC South:
Falcons 6-5 4-1 | Buccaneers 5-6 1-2 | Saints 4-7 2-3 | Panthers 3-8 1-2
Playoff Bracket and Chances:
AFC: Division Leaders
1 Chiefs >99% | 2 Bills >99% | 3 Steelers 97% | 4 Texans 89%
AFC: Wild Card Teams
5 Ravens 98% | 6 Chargers 86% | 7 Broncos 71%
AFC: In the Hunt (within two games or less out of the playoffs)
Five win teams: 8 Dolphins 18% | 9 Colts 32%
AFC: Outside of the Hunt (within three games or more out of the playoffs)
Four win team: 10 Bengals 4%
Three win teams: 11 Browns <1% | 12 Jets <1% | 13 Titans 4% | 14 Patriots <1%
Two win teams: 15 Jaguars 1% | 16 Raiders <1%
NFC: Division Leaders
1 Lions >99% | 2 Eagles >99% | 3 Seahawks 33% | 4 Falcons 78%
NFC: Wild Card Teams
5 Vikings 97% | 6 Packers 95% | 7 Commanders 59%
NFC: In the Hunt
Six win team: 8 Cardinals 56%
Five win teams: 9 Buccaneers 43% | 10 Rams 19% | 11 49ers 8%
NFC: Outside the Hunt
Four win teams: 12 Saints 5% | 13 Bears <1% | 14 Cowboys 5%
Three win team: 15 Panthers <1%
Two win team: 16 Giants <1%
Teams that could clinch a playoff spot this week:
Bills can clinch the AFC east withā¦
- Bills win + Dolphins loss
Chiefs can clinch a playoff spot withā¦
- Chiefs win + Dolphins loss/tie
- Chiefs tie + Dolphins loss
- Chiefs win + Broncos loss
- Chiefs win + Broncos tie + Chargers loss
Lions can clinch a playoff spot withā¦
- Lions win + 49ers loss/tie + Seahawks loss + Cardinals loss/tie + Buccaneers loss/tie
- Lions win + 49ers loss/tie + Seahawks tie + Cardinals loss + Buccaneers loss/tie
- Lions win + 49ers loss/tie + Seahawks loss + Cardinals loss/tie + Falcons loss + Commanders loss/tie
- Lions win + 49ers loss/tie + Seahawks tie + Cardinals loss + Falcons loss + Commanders loss/tie
- Lions win + 49ers loss/tie + Seahawks loss + Cardinals loss/tie + Falcons tie + Commanders loss
- Lions win + 49ers loss/tie + Seahawks tie + Cardinals loss + Falcons tie + Commanders loss
Teams that could be eliminated from playoff contention this week:
Giants can be eliminated withā¦
- Giants loss
- Giants tie + Commanders win/tie
- Packers win/tie + Commanders win
Patriots can be eliminated withā¦
- Patriots loss + Chargers win/tie + Broncos win/tie
- Patriots loss + Chargers win/tie + Texans win/tie
- Patriots loss + Chargers win/tie + Dolphins win
- Patriots tie + Chargers win + Broncos win
Jaguars can be eliminated withā¦
- Jaguars loss + Chargers win/tie + Broncos win/tie
- Jaguars tie + Chargers win + Broncos win
Raiders can be eliminated withā¦
- Raiders loss
- Raiders tie + Chargers win/tie + Broncos win/tie
